A new Israeli phase in Gaza

BY YOSSI MELMAN

So far Hamas has launched 650 rockets and mortar shells – an average daily rate of 110 - and according to IDF estimates, it has 5,000 rockets of all ranges (60% of its arsenal at the beginning of the war).

As the war on Gaza enters its sixth day it moves to its second phase. During the first five days of the campaign the nearly 1,200 air force strikes were mostly "surgical," directed at targets identified by precise intelligence with a great effort to avoid collateral damage, i.e. to innocent civilians.

But this tactic limited the military's ability to effectively eliminate the military infrastructure of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

It also placed Israel in a difficult position vis-à-vis the well-known practice by Hamas and other Gaza terror groups of using civilians as human shields. Hamas also built underground bunkers, rockets depots and workshops under residential buildings and launched rockets from mosque yards and rooftops.

Israel thus decided on a dramatic new approach. Using radio transmissions, phone calls and leaflets dropped from the air, the military instructed residents to evacuate homes and neighborhoods in northern Gaza to avoid being bombed in an air strike scheduled to take place on Sunday at noon.

This new approach was also as a result of the massive attack on Saturday night against Tel Aviv. In an unprecedented step, Hamas announced at 8pm – while Israelis were glued to prime time tv coverage of the day's dramatic events - that it would send a barrage of rockets at 9. And indeed, with a fashionable Middle Eastern delay of seven minutes Hamas delivered. Ten rockets were launched; luckily all were either intercepted by the anti-missile defense system or landed in open spaces.

But it was a psychological victory for Hamas, proving its credibility. It was the heaviest single attack on Tel Aviv since the Egyptian air force dropped a few bombs in the 1948 War and Saddam Hussein's Iraqi army fired Scud missile some 40 years later.

Israel could not let such a Hamas provocation pass.

In another indication of more dramatic tactics, Israel sent its special forces into action beyond enemy lines. The naval commandos (Flotilla 13) landed Saturday night on a northern Gaza beach and destroyed a fortified launcher of Hamas's longest rocket – R160 (or also known as M-302) which was targeting the Israeli city of Haifa and its vicinity.

So far Hamas has launched 650 rockets and mortar shells – an average daily rate of 110 - and according to IDF estimates, it has 5,000 rockets of all ranges (60% of its arsenal at the beginning of the war).

The desire of Hamas is to target Israeli urban centers and thus increase the number of civilian casualties. The Islamist movement would probably not shed tears, either, if Gazan civilians are also hit. The more Palestinians are killed, the better Hamas' interests are served in terms of propaganda and rallying Arab and international support and sympathy.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated Sunday that the war will continue "for some time." But time is not on the Israeli side.

Already Arab and western leaders are calling on Israel to restrain its operations.

Efforts to reach a truce then a ceasefire to be backed by a long term diplomatic solution are already underway by Qatar, Egypt, the United States, the UK, Germany, as well as former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, an emissary of the Quartet (Russia, USA, EU and UN) and Egypt.

If these combined efforts bear fruit by the end of this week, the third Gaza War will end with a solid cease fire.